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Why I'm Short Gold, Silver, and the Stock Market
March 15, 2012

Last spring I went all cash and sold all resource stocks. Over the summer I slowly rebuilt some of those positions and by fall I was again 100% committed. Come December I was buying on margin. During this period of almost a year I became more bullish while the populace at large became as pessimistic as I've ever seen them. At one point 66% believed we were going into a recession or depression. Meanwhile the market kept climbing. And since there was simply no evidence for a downturn I took a bullish stance and bought.

But that all changed recently. I became cautious, even as I added to positions... (continue reading)

Fact, Theory, and Markets
March 22, 2012

Recently ECRI, an economic cycle research firm with an outstanding track record made a controversial recession call. The short-term indicators ECRI relies on were indeed signaling up, but long-term indicators pointed down. When challenged regarding the plausibility of recession, given all the good news at present and the market's move upward, Lakshman Achuthan, managing editor of ECRI's forecasting publications stood by his call stating, "…the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice."

This caught my attention since I've been discussing the same recessionary threat from a theoretical viewpoint... (continue reading)